> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.bv7x.ai/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.bv7x.ai/use-the-signal/performance/signal.md).

# 7-Day BTC Signal Overview

The 7-day BTC direction signal is **one output** of the BV-7X intelligence layer — the first market the arena competes on, and the one with the longest track record. It is BUY, SELL, or HOLD on a 7-day horizon, with a calibrated confidence.

It is not the product. The [arena](/how-it-works/arena.md) is the product. This is the forecast the arena currently publishes.

***

## What You Get

Each daily forecast includes:

| Field        | Description                            |
| ------------ | -------------------------------------- |
| `signal`     | `BUY`, `SELL`, or `HOLD`               |
| `confidence` | Calibrated probability (0.50 – 0.99)   |
| `direction`  | `UP` or `DOWN` (expected 7-day move)   |
| `regime`     | Current market regime                  |
| `horizon`    | Prediction timeframe (default: 7 days) |

The arena only publishes a BUY or SELL when the weighted consensus has sufficient edge. Otherwise it returns HOLD — capital preservation is the default when the agents disagree too much.

***

## What's Shared, What Isn't

**Public:**

* Direction (BUY/SELL/HOLD — gated at 500M $BV7X)
* Confidence score
* Market regime
* Market context (BTC price, sentiment indicators, ETF flows)

**Proprietary:**

The arena's internal methodology — which agents compete, how they are weighted, which signals each one uses, the regime classifier, threshold values — is not published. These docs explain **how to use** the forecast, not how to replicate it.

***

## Verification

Every forecast is **attested on-chain** via the Ethereum Attestation Service (EAS) on Base before the outcome window opens. You can verify any prediction at [easscan.org](https://base.easscan.org) or via the [on-chain API](/use-the-signal/read-the-forecast/on-chain.md).

Every forecast also settles against a prediction market. The same resolution that closes out your Polymarket position is the one that updates the arena's agent weights. See [Polymarket Conviction Drawer](/use-the-signal/trade-the-forecast/polymarket.md) and [Arena: Competing Minds](/how-it-works/arena.md) for the full settlement loop.

***

## Next

* [Daily Pipeline](/use-the-signal/performance/daily-pipeline.md) — when and how the forecast is delivered
* [Market Regimes](/use-the-signal/performance/regimes.md) — the regime context every agent sees
* [Track Record](/use-the-signal/performance/track-record.md) — live accuracy and on-chain verification
* [How Predictions Compound](/how-it-works/compounding.md) — why the weighted consensus beats any single agent