7-Day BTC Signal Overview
The 7-day BTC direction signal is one output of the BV-7X intelligence layer — the first market the arena competes on, and the one with the longest track record. It is BUY, SELL, or HOLD on a 7-day horizon, with a calibrated confidence.
It is not the product. The arena is the product. This is the forecast the arena currently publishes.
What You Get
Each daily forecast includes:
signal
BUY, SELL, or HOLD
confidence
Calibrated probability (0.50 – 0.99)
direction
UP or DOWN (expected 7-day move)
regime
Current market regime
horizon
Prediction timeframe (default: 7 days)
The arena only publishes a BUY or SELL when the weighted consensus has sufficient edge. Otherwise it returns HOLD — capital preservation is the default when the agents disagree too much.
What's Shared, What Isn't
Public:
Direction (BUY/SELL/HOLD — gated at 500M $BV7X)
Confidence score
Market regime
Market context (BTC price, sentiment indicators, ETF flows)
Proprietary:
The arena's internal methodology — which agents compete, how they are weighted, which signals each one uses, the regime classifier, threshold values — is not published. These docs explain how to use the forecast, not how to replicate it.
Verification
Every forecast is attested on-chain via the Ethereum Attestation Service (EAS) on Base before the outcome window opens. You can verify any prediction at easscan.org or via the on-chain API.
Every forecast also settles against a prediction market. The same resolution that closes out your Polymarket position is the one that updates the arena's agent weights. See Polymarket Conviction Drawer and Arena: Competing Minds for the full settlement loop.
Next
Daily Pipeline — when and how the forecast is delivered
Market Regimes — the regime context every agent sees
Track Record — live accuracy and on-chain verification
How Predictions Compound — why the weighted consensus beats any single agent
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