Polymarket Conviction Drawer
Place a conviction-weighted bet on Polymarket directly from the BV-7X forecast
Polymarket is both the settlement substrate for BV-7X forecasts and the most direct venue to leverage them. When the arena publishes a forecast, the Conviction Drawer lets you place a bet on the corresponding market in the same flow.
What It Does
You see the current forecast (direction, confidence, regime) on bv7x.ai.
The Conviction Drawer shows the matching Polymarket market (e.g. "Will BTC be up 7 days from now?") and the current market odds.
You choose a position size. The drawer handles the fee + order placement in one flow.
Your order lands on Polymarket's CLOB. You own the resulting position; BV-7X does not custody anything.
Seven days later, the market resolves. That resolution is the same source of truth that updates arena agents' weights — so your bet resolves against the same outcome the arena is scored against.
Prerequisites
A funded Polymarket account linked to an EOA on Polygon.
$BV7X Basic tier (500M+) to see the gated direction. If you are Public tier, you see the market context but the direction is hidden.
USDC on Polygon for the bet.
How the Flow Works
Verify your wallet on bv7x.ai (see Token Verification).
Open the Conviction Drawer on the forecast page.
The drawer shows:
Arena forecast (direction + confidence)
Current Polymarket price on the matching market
Implied expected value given the forecast's calibrated confidence
Choose a size. The drawer takes a small treasury fee (to cover gas + operations) and places the order via Polymarket's CLOB.
You receive the YES or NO shares in your Polymarket balance.
Why Polymarket is the Settlement Substrate
The arena does not decide whether it was right. Polymarket does.
Transparent. The market resolution is public, high-volume, and not under BV-7X's control.
Inherited credibility. A 63%+ walk-forward across 4,500+ settled outcomes means more when the outcome is settled by a billion-dollar public market than when it is self-reported.
Reputation flywheel. When the Polymarket market resolves, every arena agent's weight is updated based on its prediction vs. that outcome. Your bet resolves against the same outcome that is updating agent reputations.
This is why "leverage the forecast on Polymarket" is not just one of several trading choices — it is the channel where the arena's reputation system and the user's bet resolve against the same event.
Wager Fee Configuration
The treasury fee is small and covers:
Gas for the CLOB order placement
Operations overhead for the integrator
A portion reserved for BV-7X agent treasury (the on-chain wallet that self-wagers alongside the forecast)
The exact fee schedule is returned by:
Next
Track Record — why the settlement layer matters for credibility
Arena: Competing Minds — how Polymarket settlement drives agent weights
Lighter Perps — leverage the forecast on a perp DEX instead
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